Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in less than expected

The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge came in lower than expected in November, but it still remains above the central bank’s target level as they continue efforts to wrestle inflation down. 

The Commerce Department reported on Friday that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.1% in November and 2.4% on a year-over-year basis. Both came in below FactSet economists’ estimates. 

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% for the month and is up 2.8% from a year ago, also less than expectations. 

U.S. stocks were mixed following the data in what is a volatile week of trading ahead of the shortened Christmas trading week. 

Still, the headline PCE of 2.4% inched up from 2.3% in October and 2.1% in September, suggesting that inflation remains sticky.

WHY EGG PRICES REMAIN SO PRICEY

The Federal Reserve is focusing on the PCE headline figure as it tries to slow the pace of price increases to 2%, although policymakers view the core data as a better indicator of inflation. 

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on Dec. 18, 2024 in Washington, D.C. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates the third time t (Alex Wong/Getty Images / Getty Images)

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this week, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the importance of incoming data. 

THE FED CUTS RATES AGAIN IN DECEMBER

“We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. And considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. We’re not on any pre-set course in our summary of economic projections” he said during his press conference. 

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Personal consumption or spending rose 0.4% less than estimates but matched the prior month. Incomes, however, came in at 0.4% less than the prior read of 0.6%.