The Dow is in danger of doing something it hasn’t since 1978

New York
CNN
 — 

The world’s most famous market indicator is at risk of suffering its longest losing streak since Jimmy Carter was in the White House.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped eight days in a row coming into Tuesday and fell by around 250 points, or 0.6%, in midday trading.

The blue chips haven’t closed in the red for nine consecutive days since February 1978, according to FactSet data.

But the recent market slump has been mild, with the Dow losing just 3% over the prior eight trading days. That’s barely a blip in the big picture.

Not only that, but the losses have been mostly contained to the Dow.

The Nasdaq, powered by Big Tech and the artificial intelligence boom, is still on fire. It surged another 1.2% on Monday to record highs. The S&P 500 advanced Monday as well.

“It’s a little quirky,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer and chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services. “Money continues to rotate into technology stocks. That’s the dominant theme for this market: AI and technology.”

UnitedHealthcare Group accounts for a significant chunk of the recent losses on the Dow. The insurance giant has lost 18% of its value so far this month, a selloff that began after the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. UnitedHealthcare dropped again on Monday after President-elect Donald Trump vowed to “knock out” drug-industry middlemen.

The Dow’s current eight-day losing streak is its longest since 2018 and it comes ahead of Wednesday’s interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve.

Investors widely expect the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point, although officials could signal plans to slow the pace of cuts in 2025.

Despite the recent losses, the blue chips are up by 16% so far this year. Not only that, but the Dow is still about 1,500 points (3.5%) higher than it was on Election Day.

Markets initially surged following the election results, with investors breathing a sigh of relief that recounts and court fights were avoided. There has also been significant enthusiasm for Trump’s promises to cut red tape and taxes.

“After the election, investors focused only on the good parts of Trump policy. Next year, they’ll have to focus on both the good and the bad,” said Lerner, referring to concerns about Trump’s threats to spike tariff rates and launch mass deportations.

There hasn’t been a losing streak of 10 days or more since an 11-day slump in 1974, according to FactSet data.

“I don’t believe the Dow’s recent losing streak is necessarily a sign of trouble ahead,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise.

Instead, Saglimbene said, the recent losses represents some profit-taking after steep gains in recent weeks.

There’s also been a “modest reset in expectations around the risks and opportunities associated with the incoming Trump administration next year,” he said, “and whether a Trump 2.0 policy agenda can spur the type of growth being priced into stocks.”