By Tim Hepher and Karl Plume
PARIS/CHICAGO (Reuters) -Makers of goods from sportswear to luxury cars and chemicals painted a gloomy picture on Wednesday of consumer and industrial health, hitting share prices and adding to concerns about the damage from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
Increased tariffs on all U.S. steel and aluminium imports took effect on Wednesday, as Trump stepped up his campaign to reorder global trade in favour of the United States. Europe and Canada swiftly retaliated.
Trump’s plans for tariffs – and their back-and-forth implementation since he took office in January – have upended industries from cars to energy and unnerved businesses and investors. Worries that rising costs will reignite inflation, and that souring consumer sentiment could herald a U.S. recession, have caused stock markets to plunge.
At a grains conference on Tuesday in Carlsbad, California, news of Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada drew groans from the room of corporate agriculture executives, grain processors and traders. The whipsaw pace of policy changes that affect their industry has made the last six weeks seem much longer, many told Reuters.
“Nearly everyone in the economy is struggling to comprehend wild swings in Washington policies, and their implications for everyday decisions,” said Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at asset manager Franklin Templeton.
The constant flip-flopping over tariffs is paralysing industries. Automakers, for example, are unable to plan while there is a threat of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, or Europe.
“No reasonable auto executive can make such investments if the expected returns can be wiped out at the stroke of a pen,” Dover said.
Germany’s Porsche said on Wednesday it was assessing how it could pass on to consumers the cost of possible tariffs, without pressuring its margins, implying a price hike.
“For now, we are hoping there are solutions that will lead to a sensible tariff regime between regions,” Porsche CFO Jochen Breckner said on a press call.
Several automakers are doubling down on plans to produce more cars in the U.S. to escape the tariffs, but analysts said car prices are likely to increase because auto parts suppliers whose supply chains are not as localized as the car companies will be hurt.
Two major South Korean steelmakers said they were considering options including possible investment in operations in the United States as the metals tariffs came into force.
Canada’s Algoma Steel paused exports of steel from Canada to the United States, and its CEO Michael Garcia called the tariffs “very concerning.”
‘CONFUSING, INSCRUTABLE’
Speaking on French television hours before the aluminium tariffs came into force, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury warned of a trade “conflagration” as the world descends into tit-for-tat measures.
“Some of my suppliers can be affected and we are starting to see some disruption,” he said, adding, “We are in a trade war and when a trade war begins, it tends to sustain itself and feed itself.”
So far the aerospace industry has not seen a significant direct impact but many of its suppliers are in Mexico, Canada and China, which have been targeted by earlier duties or tariff warnings.
JPMorgan’s chief economist Bruce Kasman said he saw a 40% chance of a U.S. recession this year, which would rise to 50% if Trump follows through on threats to impose reciprocal tariffs from April. He also warned of lasting damage to the United States as an investment destination if the administration undermines trust in governance.
Asked about a recession resulting from his trade policies, Trump said on Tuesday: “I don’t see it at all.” On Monday, he had declined to rule one out.
Earnings from German sportswear maker Puma and Zara-owner Inditex underscored concerns that uncertainties over trade are starting to curb American spending. Shares in Puma, which highlighted trade disputes as a challenge and announced job cuts, lost almost a quarter of their value.
France, Spain and Italy all requested that the European Commission exclude wine and spirits from the list of U.S. goods targeted with tariffs, an executive from a large European spirits producer said on Wednesday. EU tariffs on U.S. spirits such as bourbon whiskey will be “devastating” for the liquor industry, trade associations on both sides of the Atlantic said.
Shares of U.S. beauty companies, including Estee Lauder, fell after a French cosmetics industry body said there was “enormous” risk of retaliation by the U.S. after the EU said it would impose tariffs on U.S. imports including makeup.
More than 900 of the 1,500 largest U.S. companies have mentioned tariffs on earnings calls or at investor events since the beginning of the year, according to LSEG data.
The tariffs are already driving prices for aluminium users in the United States to record highs. At a conference hosted by UBS in New York, Bud Light maker Anheuser-Busch InBev said higher input costs due to tariffs will make beer cans more expensive.
Christian Kohlpaintner, CEO of German chemicals distributor Brenntag, said the “confusing, inscrutable” economic and political situation made it hard to run a business.
“The big risk is that companies stop spending and equally the consumer also stalls purchases,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at investment firm St. James’s Place.
(Reporting by Tim Hepher in Paris, Karl Plume in Chicago; Additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London, Siddharth Cavale in New York, Kalea Hall in Detroit and Reuters bureaus; Writing by Josephine Mason and Sayantani Ghosh; Editing by Catherine Evans, Rod Nickel and Diane Craft)
