The possibility of “city-killing” asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth is no longer a threat, but it could strike the moon, according to scientists.
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) made the discovery after completing the first of two planned observations of asteroid 2024 YR4.
“While an Earth impact by 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 has now been ruled out, it continues to have a non-zero probability of impacting the Moon at this time,” the researchers wrote in their preliminary report.
There is a second round of JWST observations set for May 2025, before the asteroid could disappear into the outer solar system for the next several years.
If the asteroid hit the moon in 2032, it could potentially throw debris
“Should the asteroid impact the moon, the Earth-moon system could be clouded with particles detached from the moon and the asteroid, potentially threatening the human space infrastructure and operations,” he said.
The near-Earth asteroid first made headlines in late January, when NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) announced its existence and said it had a 1 per cent chance of coming into contact with our planet.
That increase briefly saw 2024 YR4 labelled as the riskiest asteroid in the history of NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Risk Table.
“An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region,” the ESA said in a space safety briefing. “As a result, the object rose to the top of ESA’s asteroid risk list.”
In another update in mid-February, the space agency had increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, with the probability of impact rising to 3.1 per cent or one-in-32 odds of impact — the highest probability of a collision yet.
It was the highest risk assessment an asteroid has ever received, after the 2.7 per cent chance of Apophis hitting in 2004. NASA said there was a 2.6 per cent chance of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 with a one-in-38 chance of impact — the same odds that appear on a roulette wheel.
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On Feb. 7, experts at NASA had bumped up the odds to a one-in-43 chance.
Scientists had previously said it was not keeping them up at night, and that no one should panic, despite not being able to rule out the possibility of an impact.
By Feb. 18, the space agency announced that the now-notorious piece of space rock had a roughly 3 per cent chance of colliding with Earth.
But on Feb. 20, CNEOS said that risk had fallen to about 1.5 per cent.
Regarding the most recent drop in impact risk, NASA wrote, “New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032. The current probability is 1.5%.”
“Our understanding of the asteroid’s path improves with every observation. We’ll keep you posted,” the agency said, suggesting more updates will come.
The asteroid measures between 40 and 90 metres wide, based on estimates from its reflected light.
If it did strike Earth, 2024 YR4 would cause “severe blast damage” spanning as far as 50 kilometres from the impact site, according to the International Asteroid Warning Network.
— With files from Global News’ Michelle Butterfield
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2025-04-02 15:56:10
