QuantumScape (NYSE: QS) was once considered a promising play on the solid-state battery market, but its stock has tumbled more than 70% over the past three years. Like many other start-ups that went public by merging with special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) in recent years, QuantumScape overpromised and underdelivered.
QuantumScape originally claimed it could commercialize its first batteries by 2024, but it still hasn’t sold a single battery yet. But could its stock bounce back over the next three years as it finally starts mass-producing its batteries?
QuantumScape develops solid-state lithium-metal batteries that generate power from solid electrolytes instead of the liquid electrolytes used in lithium-ion batteries. Solid-state batteries are more resistant to higher temperatures and charge more quickly than their lithium-ion counterparts, but they’re also much more expensive to produce.
QuantumScape’s QSE-5 batteries have an energy density of more than 800 Wh/L (watt-hours per liter) and can be charged from 10% to 80% in less than 15 minutes. By comparison, most lithium-ion batteries have an average density of 300-700 Wh/L, and they usually require 20 minutes to an hour to be charged to 80%.
Volkswagen is one of QuantumScape’s top investors, and it’s been co-developing those batteries with the company for over a decade. But even with that support, the company is struggling to ramp up its production. Instead, its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA
|
Metric |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Adjusted EBITDA (in millions) |
($249) |
($249) |
($285) |
|
Net loss (in millions) |
($412) |
($445) |
($478) |
Data source: QuantumScape.
Yet, QuantumScape still has an enterprise value of $1.9 billion, which suggests its investors expect it to eventually generate meaningful revenue when it commercializes and mass-produces its first batteries.
The company still had $911 million in total liquidity at the end of 2024, and it insists that cash runway can last through the second half of 2028. It also says, “Any additional funds from customer inflows or capital markets activity would further extend this cash runway.” In other words, QuantumScape won’t go bankrupt anytime soon.
QuantumScape started shipping some low-volume samples to select automakers in the second half of 2024. It plans to ship even more advanced samples in 2025 as it transitions from its current Raptor separator process to its more advanced Cobra separator process — which should improve its cell reliability, boost its product yields, and pave the way toward mass production and commercialization of its QSE-5 batteries.
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2025-03-22 12:30:00
