What We Know About the U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal

Officials in Ukraine and the Trump administration said they have reached a deal that would give the United States revenues from Ukraine’s minerals and other natural resources, after an intense pressure campaign by the American president.

Terms of the agreement

It is not clear if the two sides have reached final agreement on the terms of the deal.

A draft seen by The New York Times dated Feb. 25 described the creation of a U.S.-controlled fund that would receive revenue from Ukraine’s natural resources.

Missing from the draft was Mr. Trump’s initial demand that Ukraine contribute $500 billion to a fund owned by the United States and pay back twice the amount of any future American aid.

• Under the draft agreement, Ukraine would contribute into the fund half of its revenues from the future monetization of natural resources, including critical minerals, oil and gas, as well as earnings from associated infrastructure, such as liquefied natural gas terminals and port infrastructure.

• The fund would not draw on revenue from existing mines, oil wells and other natural resources businesses.

• The United States would own the maximum financial interest in the fund allowed under American law, though not necessarily all. It is unclear how that would be interpreted.

• The fund would be designed to reinvest some revenues into Ukraine.

Security guarantee

The draft vaguely referenced security guarantees, but did not signal any specific U.S. commitment to safeguarding Ukraine’s security — a provision Kyiv has vigorously pressed to include as its war against Russia enters its fourth year.

A copy of the agreement obtained Wednesday by The New York Times included a sentence stating that the United States “supports Ukraine’s effort to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.” Previous drafts did not have the phrase.

Approval process

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is expected to travel to Washington on Friday to sign the agreement with President Trump. The draft obtained by The Times showed Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, and Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s economy minister, as the initial signatories.

It was not clear whether the draft, dated Tuesday, was a final version.

Ukraine’s mineral resources

Ukraine controls more than 100 major deposits of critical minerals, according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics, along with modest oil and natural gas reserves.

Ukraine also has deposits of 20 of the 50 minerals the U.S. Geological Survey lists as critical for America’s economic development and defense, including:

• Titanium, used in construction, airplanes, orthopedic implants and as an additive in paint and cosmetics, including sunscreen, among many other things. Titanium mines in central Ukraine account for about 6 percent of global production, according to Ukrainian media.

• Lithium, a crucial element in batteries, including those in electric vehicles, and in other industrial products, including some medications. Ukraine has a third of Europe’s total reserves, although some sites are in war-contested areas. Before the war with Russia, Ukrainian officials suggested to Elon Musk that he invest in Ukrainian lithium mines.

• Rare earths, a group of more than a dozen metals, much less abundant than titanium or lithium, that are used in many high-tech sectors, including green energy, electronics and aerospace. Ukraine has substantial reserves that are mostly untapped, and it is unclear how expensive they would be to extract.

• Manganese, used for steel smelting.

• Zirconium, used in the ceramics industry, nuclear fuel rods and artificial diamonds.

• Graphite, used in steel manufacturing and electric motors. Ukraine is one of the world’s leading producers.

Ukraine also has Europe’s largest reserves of uranium, used in nuclear power plants and nuclear weapons. Oil and natural gas fields dot several regions of Ukraine, and surveys conducted before the war found offshore natural gas reserves.

Why they’re valuable

Mr. Trump has said he wants revenue from the minerals as repayment for military aid that the United States has provided to Ukraine.

He also could be seeking access to gain a geopolitical advantage over Beijing: Ukraine could help break a Chinese near-monopoly on some rare earth metals needed for mobile phones, other electronics and possibly future technologies.

“It’s clear that Europe, Japan, and the United States are all dependent on China for rare earth elements,” Serhiy Vyzhva, director of the Institute of Geology at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, said in an interview.

Other ores, minerals and energy are less strategic but still valuable. Ukrainian oil and natural gas reserves could be a source of revenue for the U.S.-controlled fund envisioned in the agreement.

How the minerals would actually be extracted has not been extensively discussed with the Trump administration, but developing those resources has been long-term goal for Ukraine.

“Our geological base is similar to that of Canada and South Africa, both of which have extensive mineral resources,” said Mr. Vyzhva, the Ukrainian geologist.

The country’s most productive mines produce iron, titanium, manganese and zirconium, he said, adding that Ukraine was “highly interested” in investment, but its “main focus remains on ending the war.”

Remaining obstacles

When Mr. Zelensky last fall introduced the idea of trading natural resources for military support, he told the Ukrainian Parliament the country’s mineral wealth was worth “trillions” of dollars. That bonanza would be available to “either Russia and its allies or Ukraine and the democratic world” depending on who won the war, he said.

The resources are valuable but experts say that Mr. Zelensky’s estimate is exaggerated. Much exploration remains to be done to assess the true value of the country’s critical minerals, they say, and cumbersome bureaucracy and corruption has limited investment. Under a Soviet-era policy, for example, information about some reserves are classified as state secrets, preventing foreigners from even studying them, a Ukrainian business newspaper reported.

The Ukrainian government’s revenues last year from natural resources royalties were $1.1 billion, far less than the hundreds of billions of dollars Mr. Trump has said he is seeking from the agreement.

The International Energy Agency reported in 2023 that lithium is now mined in sufficient quantities around the world to meet global demand.

One lithium deposit and several rare earth deposits are in Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia. Some offshore natural gas deposits in the Black Sea are also inaccessible while fighting continues; some drilling platforms have become contested sea bases for both Russian and Ukrainian marines.

American and other international oil companies have also previously tried to do business in Ukraine.

Before Russia’s military incursion in eastern Ukraine in 2014, Ukraine cut deals with Chevron and Shell to explore for shale gas, which the country possesses in abundance — though it has not been economically viable to extract. Shell’s project ended with the Russian incursion, which occupied areas near the site of its project in the Donetsk region. Chevron’s project was canceled because of geological challenges.

Andrew E. Kramer and Alan Rappeport contributed reporting.